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Flood Outlook: June 28, 2017
Published on Jun 29, 2017 09:05

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT

FLOOD OUTLOOK                                      

        Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority

         120 Bayview Parkway, Newmarket, Ont., L3Y 3W3                              Telephone: (905) 895-1281 Fax: (905) 853-5881

Issued to the following groups:

1)         Municipalities and Local Conservation Authorities

2)         School Boards and Police

3)         Media

4)         LSRCA Board of Directors and all LSRCA Employees

Date:   June 28, 2017      Time:   12:00 p.m.

The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority advises the Weather Office is forecasting intermittent low pressure systems tracking through Ontario between today and Saturday.  Rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 mm are predicted for Wednesday night / Thursday morning.  Friday’s forecast calls for between 10 to 20 mm of rainfall.  For Saturday and through the weekend, rainfall amounts in the 15 to 25 mm range are forecast.    There is also a risk of thunderstorms associated with this weather system.  

Saturated ground conditions combined with the forecasted rainfall will result in increased stream flows.  While widespread flooding is not expected, the possibility of flooding in various low lying areas of the watershed exists.  

The water level in Lake Simcoe is above average for this time of year.  There is an increased potential for flooding of low-lying lands adjacent to the lake.   The risk of flooding may be increased in localized areas due to wave action from winds. 

The high lake levels may impact the dykes in the polder areas.  Polders are low-lying lands adjacent to bodies of water and protected by dykes.

 A summary of recent Lake Simcoe water levels can be found below:  

Date

Lake Simcoe Water Level

(metres above sea level)

June 21, 2017

219.18

June 22, 2017

219.17

June 23, 2017

219.20

June 24, 2017

219.22

June 26, 2017

219.23

Current Water Level:

June 28, 2017

219.23


The following table summarizes the weather forecast for the next four days including expected precipitation (Environment Canada, MNRF):

Date

Weather Forecast

Today:

June 28, 2017

Sunny.Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this afternoon.

Wind:20 km/h SW gusting to 40km/h early this afternoon.

Night: Increasing cloudiness, 60% chance of showers.

24 Hr Rain: 15 mm.

June 29, 2017

Mainly cloudy with 70% chance of showers.

Wind:20 km/h SW gusting to 40km/h nearnoon.

Night: Cloudy periods, 60% chance of showers.

24 Hr Rain: < 10 mm.

June 30, 2017

A mix of sun and cloud with 40% chance of showers.

Night: cloudy periods with 60% chance of showers.

24 Hr Rain: 10 to 20 mm.

July 1, 2017

A mix of sun and cloud with 30% chance of showers.

Night: Cloudy periods.

24 Hr Rain: 15 to 25 mm.

Local streams and rivers may become dangerous, especially in the vicinity of culverts and bridges.  In addition, stream banks may become slippery and unstable.  Children should be warned to stay away from all watercourses. 

This Watershed Conditions Statement will be in effect through Tuesday, July 4th, 2017.

For further information, please contact the following person at (905) 895-1281:

Ken Cheney, P.Eng.

Acting Duty Officer

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook:  Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.